The Biggest Product Intro In History

I just put down $1000 to reserve my Tesla Model 3.  I am really enamored with this grey color:

So...  why is this my next car?  Here are the superficial reasons:

1. No fossile fuels
2. Sub 6 sec 0-60
3. Self driving
4. Supercharge station support
5. Awesome electronics package
6. Comfy

But...  The real reason is that it will only cost me $15,000.  That is less than half of what my Mini Cooper cost in 2006.  In addition, I have put about $10,000 of fuel and $3000 of maintenance into that ride. 

How does that math work?  Here goes:

Base Price:  $35,000

Tax Rebate: -$7,000

Since I will charge at work and will keep the car 10+ years...

Fuel Savings: -$10,000

Maintenance savings ver 10 years: -$3,000

Total cost of ownership compared to a $35,000 gas guzzler:  $15,000

BUT

This assumes I will get in under the tax cut off.  

This is the interesting part of the Tesla Model 3 launch plan.  They need to try and get as many people into the $7500 tax break window as possible.  The problem is that sometime in the next 2 years, the total number of electric car sales will pass the 200,000 unit mark and then a 6 month window starts after which the tax break starts to tail off.

So, as we approach the 200,000 unit barrier, Tesla needs to be hitting its max capacity of 500,000 units per year.  This is up from the current 5000-6000 they have been doing with the Model S/X.  If they can get to that level in the next 12-16 months, then they may be able to get enough units out in the six month grace window to accommodate most of the pre order purchases which is quickly approaching 350,000 units.

It will be fascinating to watch Tesla over the next year figure out how to finish development and ramp up to max velocity.  GRABBING POPCORN.

TL;DR: Tesla needs to GO VERY FAST!