What does a $5 Raspberry Pi mean?

THIS BREAKS MY BRAIN...

What does it mean to live in a world where you can get a computer for $5.  I am talking about a computer that can connect to a monitor with HDMI, a keyboard, mouse, and wifi (over usb).    I am not talking about a headless microcontroller like and Arduino.  This is a real PC.  For FIVE DOLLARS!

This computer is more powerful than a $1 Million mainframe from the mid 60s.




That means that anyone in the world can get on a computer running free open source operating system and gain access to the the same internet that I get on with my $2000 Mac.  It is crazy when you think about what you can do on this thing:

- Stream Netflix
- Listen to streaming music
- Code in almost any language
- Run a web server
- Run a database server
- Control external hardware (like Arduino)
- Check email
- Facebook (or anything you can do in a browser)
- Read this blog

With mesh networking, you can give this to kids with a cheap KVM setup anywhere in the world and you have just democratized computing.  Kids that do not have access to phones, cars, or even bikes could have a computer, learn to code, and start building skills that will get them out of poverty.

I can't stop thinking about all the possibilities.

WHAT IF?????

The Biggest Product Intro In History

I just put down $1000 to reserve my Tesla Model 3.  I am really enamored with this grey color:

So...  why is this my next car?  Here are the superficial reasons:

1. No fossile fuels
2. Sub 6 sec 0-60
3. Self driving
4. Supercharge station support
5. Awesome electronics package
6. Comfy

But...  The real reason is that it will only cost me $15,000.  That is less than half of what my Mini Cooper cost in 2006.  In addition, I have put about $10,000 of fuel and $3000 of maintenance into that ride. 

How does that math work?  Here goes:

Base Price:  $35,000

Tax Rebate: -$7,000

Since I will charge at work and will keep the car 10+ years...

Fuel Savings: -$10,000

Maintenance savings ver 10 years: -$3,000

Total cost of ownership compared to a $35,000 gas guzzler:  $15,000

BUT

This assumes I will get in under the tax cut off.  

This is the interesting part of the Tesla Model 3 launch plan.  They need to try and get as many people into the $7500 tax break window as possible.  The problem is that sometime in the next 2 years, the total number of electric car sales will pass the 200,000 unit mark and then a 6 month window starts after which the tax break starts to tail off.

So, as we approach the 200,000 unit barrier, Tesla needs to be hitting its max capacity of 500,000 units per year.  This is up from the current 5000-6000 they have been doing with the Model S/X.  If they can get to that level in the next 12-16 months, then they may be able to get enough units out in the six month grace window to accommodate most of the pre order purchases which is quickly approaching 350,000 units.

It will be fascinating to watch Tesla over the next year figure out how to finish development and ramp up to max velocity.  GRABBING POPCORN.

TL;DR: Tesla needs to GO VERY FAST!

Product Management Process

Made a high level process flow for introducing people to product management today.  Maybe someone else needs something at this level.

Here is a link to the google image file  

Monthly Capacity Planning

This will be a short post to outline a potential planning optimization we have found.  My 7 person PM team manages 8+ products for a 70+ person development organization.  There are always more opportunities than people to get them done.  We have to make trade offs.  The tough part is that everyone thinks their stuff is at least as important as everyone else's.

So, the problem we have been working on is how do you optimize multi product development spend without meddling too much in the inner working of the development organization.  The answer...

MONTHLY CAPACITY PLANNING

We have settled into a process where once a month, we meet with all the development managers and go through what is getting done and what is falling behind.  We make decisions about pushing out some things and most importantly allocating resources to priorities.

For instance, if a specific product initiative is falling behind and has a compelling reason to accelerate, we will push development to add capacity to that initiative.  Usually, this means that something else has to give up capacity.  Sometimes it means we will increase our outsourcing capacity.  Either way, we work together to openly talk about turning up or down the volume relative to where we currently are.

There are two sacred rules in this process that are key for the PMs to adhere to:

1. We cannot specify who works on what.  Only the raw capacity.
2. We cannot push back when the devs say the "plate is full".  We can only ask them to add new employees or contract augmentation.

It seems like as long as we adhere to these rules, the dev team works really hard to optimize project staffing within the dev organization.

What I like about this is each month we are able to make adjustments with development and so if something is getting sideways, it will not be long until we address it.  Once we set the capacity for each product, then for a full month, the PMs have all the maneuvering room they need to work on their specific priorities without having to fight for capacity.  

It has all the makings of a great process:  It is easy, practical, works to everyone's advantage and is sustainable.

tl;dr: Tune capacity levels monthly and live in peace